With just days to go until the Andalucian elections, the outcome may hinge on a handful of seats in just three provinces, according to the latest polls.
While the incumbent conservative president Juanma Moreno (Partido Popular) is set to win, whether he governs alone or is forced into a pact with Vox depends on a narrow margin that could swing either way.
According to the latest survey from the Centro de Estudios Andaluces (Centra), the PP could end up with anywhere between 53 and 56 seats – with 55 being an absolute majority.
Malaga key battleground
Malaga, where Moreno himself heads the list, is one of the most decisive provinces.
The PP won 10 seats there in 2022, but both Centra and the CIS now point to a possible drop of one or even two seats. In such a tight race, that loss alone could determine whether Moreno crosses the majority threshold.
Elsewhere, Cordoba and Cadiz are also expected to cost the PP at least one seat each, while Huelva and Jaen remain uncertain, with key seats still in play.
PP support softens
The polls suggest that while the PP remains dominant overall, it is losing ground in several provinces compared to the last election.
In Huelva, the sixth seat is hanging in the balance, while in Jaen the outcome is less clear, with differences between surveys.
Centra points to potential losses, while the CIS suggests a more stable performance.
The fragmentation highlights how small shifts in voter support could have outsized consequences in the final seat distribution.
It means all eyes at the PP HQ will be on Malaga, Jaen and Huelva on election day.
PSOE fighting to limit losses
For the PSOE, the picture is less about gaining ground and more about damage control.
The party is expected to lose seats in multiple provinces, including Jaen, Huelva and Sevilla. Only in Malaga, Cordoba and Cadiz does it appear likely to hold its current position.
In provinces such as Granada and Almeria, results remain uncertain, with projections giving the PSOE a range of possible outcomes rather than a clear result.
Vox gains on PP
Vox is expected to make modest gains, particularly in Cordoba, Jaen and Huelva – the same areas where the PP is losing support.
Although the surge predicted in earlier polls has softened, the party still looks set to improve on its 2022 results, potentially giving it a kingmaker role if Moreno falls short of a majority.
Left-wing competition
On the left, smaller parties are also reshaping the landscape.
Adelante Andalucia, led by Jose Ignacio Garcia, is gaining traction and could secure enough seats to form its own parliamentary group.
It is also challenging the coalition of IU, Sumar and Podemos in key provinces like Sevilla and Cadiz.
Meanwhile, Por Andalucia remains stable in several regions but is still fighting to gain representation in others, including Jaen, Huelva and Granada.
With polling margins so tight, the election outcome could come down to just a few thousand votes across a handful of provinces.
Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.
