Passengers could face a 20% increase in airfares next year if jet fuel prices remain elevated, Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has warned.

Speaking to Politico, the airline boss said Europe could experience its biggest-ever fare increase as higher fuel costs combine with fewer available flights.

His warning is conditional on fuel prices remaining around twice their level before the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began in February.

‘You’re going to see dramatically less capacity this winter and into the summer of 2027,’ he said.

Airlines commonly buy fuel in advance through hedging agreements, shielding them from some sudden price increases.

However, O’Leary said Ryanair had much less protection in place for next year.

‘As we go out into next year, we’re only 15% hedged at $85 a barrel. Basically, we’re unhedged into the summer of 2027,’ he said.

The report puts current jet fuel market prices at around $192 a barrel, citing the International Air Transport Association.

A fall before airlines secure further supplies could ease the pressure.

O’Leary also warned that airline failures, takeovers and schedule cuts could reduce competition and push fares higher.

Ryanair has reportedly removed around two million seats from its winter 2026–2027 schedule, partly blaming fuel costs.

The airline is also targeting less profitable routes and markets with higher passenger taxes.

In Belgium, it is cutting 20 routes, representing around one million seats, ahead of a passenger tax increase to €7 in January 2027.

‘We will still be profitable, although less profitable than currently, if oil prices remain high,’ O’Leary said.