The world is holding its breath as it teeters on the edge of yet another full-out war with global ramifications.
After being severely bombed by both Israel and the US, Iran has vowed to enact revenge, with leaders in Tehran telling Donald Trump that he may have started the war, but ‘we will end it.’
One particularly ominous development came after the Iranian parliament announced that it may push to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, among the world’s most crucial oil chokepoints.
That idea – though not yet greenlit by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – has already sent shockwaves through global markets. The reason? Around one-fifth of the world’s oil flows through that narrow passage.
The geopolitical earthquake hasn’t even happened yet, but markets are already trembling.
Europe – and Spain – at risk
So what happens if Tehran follows through?
According to economic analyst Marc Vidal, speaking on Herrera en COPE, even a whiff of disruption to the Strait of Hormuz is enough to spike energy prices.
‘The threat alone causes turbulence,’ he said. And with over three million barrels per day at stake, that turbulence quickly becomes a storm.
Fuel prices in Europe could surge by up to 20 cents per litre, he warns – a direct hit to consumers already strangled by inflation.
But the real pain doesn’t stop at the pump. Oil is the bloodstream of modern economies. From logistics to agriculture, every sector that depends on moving goods – or heating homes – gets caught in the crossfire.
It means the majority of everyday goods could see sharp increases in prices.
Mortgage shock brewing?
One of the stealthiest threats could hit homeowners where it hurts: their mortgage repayments.
Just as the European Central Bank was preparing to gently ease interest rates after a year of tightening, a fresh burst of oil-fuelled inflation could force it to slam on the brakes.
Worse, it may have to pivot back to rate hikes, which would be a nightmare scenario for the millions of Europeans on variable-rate mortgages.
Why? Because higher oil prices feed inflation. Inflation forces central banks to react. And rising rates crush borrowing power, choke investment, and push struggling families over the edge.
It’s the domino effect, and it starts in the Gulf.
As the threat to global energy flows looms large, countries are scrambling to assess their cushions.
- The United States enjoys a key advantage: massive strategic oil reserves, which could be tapped to blunt the impact, at least temporarily.
- China, while highly dependent on Iranian oil, has been quietly building long-term energy pacts with Russia. If Iran goes offline, the Kremlin could become Beijing’s emergency supplier.
- Europe, however, has a decades-long dependence on foreign energy that remains unresolved, and the continent lacks both sufficient reserves and alternative suppliers to come through unscathed.
As military analysts dissect troop movements and war rhetoric, economists are watching oil futures – and what they see isn’t encouraging.
If the Strait of Hormuz were to be closed even briefly, energy prices could skyrocket overnight, setting off a chain reaction across food costs, transportation, manufacturing, and financial markets.
Europe, still healing from COVID, war in Ukraine, and the inflation spike of 2022–23, may find itself dangerously exposed.
