Spain’s right-wing parties would easily secure an absolute majority if an election were held today, a new poll has found.

The survey was carried out by Ipsos on behalf of Catalan newspaper La Vanguardia, which commented that ‘only a miracle’ would save Pedro Sanchez at the ballot box.

Conducted between June 16 and 29, the poll projects that the Partido Popular (PP) and Vox would win a combined 196 seats in the 350-seat Congress – comfortably above the 176 needed for an outright majority.

The PP would win 132 seats, Vox 64, the governing PSOE 111, and Sumar just 12, leaving Spain’s left-wing bloc with only 123 MPs – almost 30 fewer than it secured at the 2023 general election.

However, not one single party would win an absolute majority, meaning there would have to be another coalition government.

The PP has been resistant to power-sharing with Vox at the national level, but it has already crossed that line in several regions this year, including in Andalucia just this past week.

The findings also suggest growing public appetite for an early election, with 46% of Spaniards saying they would like the country to go to the polls before the scheduled 2027 vote.

Support for an early election is particularly strong among PP and Vox voters, while around 70% of left-wing voters want the current legislature to continue.

The poll estimates the PP would receive 31.2% of the vote, ahead of the PSOE on 27.1%, with Vox climbing to 18.5% and Sumar falling to 7.6%. Podemos, on just 1.8%, would fail to win representation in parliament.

While the PP would actually lose a handful of seats compared with its current parliamentary strength, Vox would emerge as the biggest winner, gaining 31 more MPs than it secured at the last general election.

The survey suggests much of the growth on the right is flowing to Santiago Abascal’s party rather than to the PP.

The poll also highlights the governing PSOE’s struggle to hold onto younger voters. Among Spaniards aged 18 to 34, Vox is the most popular party with 22%, followed by the PP on 14%, while the PSOE trails in third place on 11%.

Only among voters aged 55 and over does Pedro Sanchez’s party remain broadly level with the PP.

Ipsos also found that right-wing parties are retaining their supporters far more effectively than their rivals.

Vox keeps 86% of its 2023 voters, compared with 76% for the PP. The PSOE retains 63% of its previous electorate, while Sumar keeps just 38%, with many former supporters switching to other left-wing parties or deciding not to vote.

The poll, based on interviews with 1,306 eligible voters, has a margin of error of ±2.71 percentage points.