Juanma Moreno is hoping to secure a third term as president of Andalucia on Thursday – but he’ll need the backing of hard-right party Vox.

The Partido Popular (PP) leader failed to win confirmation in Tuesday’s first investiture vote after receiving the support of only his party’s 53 MPs, falling two short of the 55 needed for an absolute majority.

A second vote will take place on Thursday evening, when only a simple majority is required. By then, PP and Vox are expected to have finalised a governing agreement.

Negotiations between the two parties have exposed the delicate balancing act facing Moreno.

He needs to strike a deal to avoid political paralysis, while trying to protect his moderate image that has made him one of Spain’s most popular regional leaders.

Vox holds the cards

With 15 seats in the Andalucian parliament, Vox now holds the key to Moreno’s presidency.

The party has made clear it will only support him in exchange for significant policy concessions and a formal role in government.

Among its main demands are:

• A commitment to a ‘national priority’ policy that would give Spaniards preferential access to certain public resources.
• Tougher measures to curb irregular immigration.
• At least one Vox minister in the regional cabinet.
• Greater influence over appointments, including positions in parliament and the Andalucian Senate.

PP and Vox have already formed coalition governments in several other Spanish regions, and Vox has insisted Andalucía should be no exception.

Immigration likely to become a flashpoint

One of the biggest sticking points has been immigration.

Vox wants Andalucia to adopt stricter measures against irregular migration and frequently links immigration with pressure on public services and crime.

Moreno has been noticeably more cautious.

During Tuesday’s eight-hour debate, he refused to endorse Vox’s ‘national priority’ proposal and avoided framing immigration as a security issue.

Instead, he focused on tackling organised crime and drug trafficking networks while defending many of his government’s existing equality and social policies.

Whether Moreno ultimately accepts Vox’s language – or finds a compromise – could become one of the defining features of the new administration.

Why both parties want a deal

Despite their political differences, neither party appears interested in forcing fresh elections.

Moreno has repeatedly said his priority is to form a government ‘as soon as possible’, while Vox’s Andalucian leader Manuel Gavira has echoed the same message.

Relations between the two parties also appeared noticeably warmer during the investiture debate than in the previous legislature, with both sides avoiding personal attacks and signalling that negotiations were progressing.

If an agreement is reached, the PP’s 53 MPs and Vox’s 15 would give the government a comfortable majority of 68 seats in the 109-seat parliament.

What could change for Andalucians?

If Vox enters government, voters could see changes in several policy areas over the coming four years.

These may include:

• Tougher regional policies on irregular immigration.
• A greater emphasis on ‘national priority’ in areas where the Junta has legal competence, although any measures would still need to comply with Spanish and European law.
• Potential changes to equality, environmental and climate policies, where Vox has frequently criticised what it calls ‘ideological’ legislation.
• A stronger focus on law and order and support for the police.

However, many of the most contentious issues – including border control, asylum policy and deportations – remain the responsibility of Spain’s central government, limiting how far the Junta can go.

A deal shaped in Madrid

While the negotiations are taking place in Andalucia, both parties acknowledge that their national leaderships have played an important role.

Vox’s headquarters in Madrid has been closely involved in setting the party’s conditions, while the PP leadership is also understood to favour a swift agreement rather than risking another election.

Barring a last-minute collapse in negotiations, Moreno is widely expected to be sworn in on Thursday, beginning a third consecutive term at the head of Andalucía’s regional government.

The price of that stability, however, is likely to be the most influential role Vox has ever held in the region.

Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.