Spain’s conservative parties could secure a significant parliamentary majority in next month’s general election, according to a new opinion poll published on Monday.
The GESOP survey, conducted for Spanish media group Prensa Iberica, projects that the Partido Popular (PP) and Vox would secure between 189 and 197 seats in the 350-member Congress of Deputies, comfortably above the 176 required for an absolute majority.
The poll comes ahead of the November 29 election, called following a political crisis over Ceuta and the collapse of government housing decrees.
Alberto Nuñez Feijoo’s PP leads with 28.7% of the vote, translating into an estimated 121 to 125 seats, down from the 137 it currently holds.
Pedro Sanchez’s Socialist Party (PSOE) follows on 26.1%, with a projected 108 to 112 MPs, compared with its current 121.
The most significant gains are recorded by Vox, led by Santiago Abascal.
The party is polling at 18.9%, its highest GESOP reading of the parliamentary term, and could win between 68 and 72 seats, more than double its current 33.
The survey also suggests Vox is attracting substantial support from former PP voters, with 20.1% of those who backed Feijoo in 2023 now indicating a preference for Abascal.
Meanwhile, Frente Amplio, the emerging alliance to the left of the PSOE, is projected to win 8% of the vote and 14 to 17 seats, while Podemos stands at 2.6% and two seats.
The poll suggests 12.5% of voters remain undecided, leaving considerable uncertainty ahead of the campaign.
There are just over six weeks remaining until Spaniards head to the polls.
