Donald Trump’s latest threat to end all trade with Spain would undoubtedly hit Andalucia’s economy if it were ever carried out, with olive oil producers among the most at risk.

But the impact would not be one-sided.

While the US is Andalucia’s largest non-European export market, the region actually imports more from the States than it exports there.

It means American companies would also lose a significant market if trade were brought to a halt.

It comes as Andalucia has already begun pivoting to other markets to reduce dependency on America, in particular to far-east giants like China.

At the national level, Spain also runs a sizeable trade deficit with the US, according to figures from Caixabank.

In 2025, Spain imported around €28.6billion worth of American goods while exporting about €15.2billion to the US, leaving a deficit of roughly €13.4billion.

In simple terms, Spain buys far more from America than it sells there, meaning any genuine trade freeze would hit US exporters hard.

Despite this, Trump this week branded Spain ‘a lost cause’ over its refusal to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP and claimed he had instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to end all trade with the country.

Although the US president cannot simply halt all bilateral trade by himself and no such policy has been implemented, the comments have raised fresh concerns among Spanish exporters.

Andalucia’s liquid gold vulnerable

According to Andalucia Trade, the US was Andalucia’s largest non-European export destination in 2025 and its fifth-largest market overall, accounting for 6.4% of exports.

Andalucia sold more than €2.6billion worth of goods to the US last year, making it Spain’s second-largest exporting region to the US after Catalonia.

Olive oil remains by far the region’s biggest export.

Between January and April this year, Andalucia exported €204million worth of olive oil to the US.

Sevilla is the province with the greatest exposure, exporting almost €100million worth during the first four months of 2026, followed by Cordoba (€45million) and Malaga (€27million).

Other major exports include refined petroleum products, table olives, cement and aircraft and helicopter components.

Exports were already falling

Trade with the US had already been weakening before Trump’s latest remarks.

Exports from Andalucia fell by almost 17% during 2025, largely because of lower fuel exports and falling olive oil prices.

Although the value of olive oil exports declined, the volume exported actually rose by 28.2%, showing that demand remained robust despite lower prices.

The downward trend has continued this year.

Between January and April, exports to the US fell another 13% to just under €809million, with regional officials pointing to existing US tariffs as one of the contributing factors.

Why the US also has something to lose

Despite the focus on Spanish exports, the trade relationship currently favours the US.

According to Andalucia Trade, Andalucia runs a trade deficit of €207million with the US, meaning it imports more American goods than it exports.

In practical terms, that means American businesses currently sell more into Andalucia than Andalucian companies sell into the US.

If trade were suspended altogether, US exporters would therefore also lose an important market.

For Andalucia, the biggest concern would be sectors that rely heavily on American buyers, particularly olive oil, where the US has become one of the industry’s most valuable overseas markets.

Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.