After several years of breakneck growth, Spain’s housing market is heading into 2026 with prices still rising, but at a slower, more uneven pace, according to a broad consensus of property analysts.
The overall message from experts consulted by Expansion is that there will be no price correction, either for buying or renting.
Instead, Spain is entering a phase of ‘moderation at high levels’, driven by a deep structural shortage of housing, weak wage growth and a growing shift of demand into the rental market.
Property prices: Still rising, but more slowly
Following the intense surge seen in 2024 and 2025, analysts expect house prices to continue climbing in 2026, typically in the range of 6% to 8% nationwide, with sharper rises in major cities and coastal hotspots.
Spain’s housing deficit – estimated at around 700,000 homes – remains the key driver.
New construction is still failing to keep pace with household formation, while regulatory bottlenecks, land shortages and labour constraints continue to hold back supply.
As Urbanitae founder Diego Bestard notes, almost everything that comes onto the market is still finding a buyer, even at higher prices.
However, affordability is becoming a real barrier, particularly for younger buyers and middle-income households.
Several experts warn that salary growth has lagged far behind house prices for five consecutive years, forcing many would-be buyers out of the sales market altogether.
Transactions plateau after record highs
After a record year for sales, analysts expect property transactions to flatten, not collapse. Around 740,000 home purchases are forecast for 2026 – only marginally above 2025 levels.
What is changing is where people are buying. While Madrid, Barcelona and the main tourist destinations remain dominant, demand is increasingly spreading to northern Spain and inland provinces, fuelled by retirees and remote workers seeking better value, larger homes and improved quality of life.
Rents set to rise even faster than sale prices
If buying is becoming harder, renting is becoming even more expensive.
Experts widely agree that rents will rise faster than sale prices in 2026, with increases of around 7% to 7.5%, particularly in large cities.
The rental market remains under extreme pressure as demand surges and supply continues to shrink.
According to Testa Homes, renting is now becoming the default route into housing for many households who can no longer afford a deposit. But investors remain wary of the sector, limiting the development of new rental stock.
As idealista spokesperson Francisco Iñareta puts it, the problem is no longer just high rents but the growing difficulty of finding a rental property at all.
Big cities and tourist areas will see the strongest rises
While price growth will be more moderate overall, not all markets will behave the same way.
Experts consistently point to Madrid, Barcelona, Malaga, Valencia and Alicante as the areas most likely to see above-average increases in both sale prices and rents.
Added to that list are consolidated urban neighbourhoods with strong services and coastal tourist zones with second-home demand.
By contrast, medium-sized cities and parts of inland Spain are expected to see greater stabilisation, with occasional localised corrections where supply is less constrained.
Interest rates help, but not enough
Mortgage conditions are no longer the tailwind they once were. While reference interest rates are expected to hover around 2%, analysts say lower borrowing costs are now being overwhelmed by high prices, limiting their impact on affordability.
As Tinsa analysts note, demand remains resilient thanks to job creation and household growth, but buyers are approaching their financial limits.
For buyers and renters alike, 2026 will not bring much relief:
- House prices: Expected to rise around 6% to 8%
- Rents: Expected to increase around 7% or more
- Supply: Still far below what Spain needs
- Demand: Strong, but increasingly constrained by affordability
Most experts agree that without a long-term national housing strategy focused on increasing supply – particularly affordable and rental housing – Spain’s housing pressures are likely to persist well beyond 2026.
