Earthquake warning for southern Spain: Study says future ‘big one’ would kill thousands – with holiday hotspots among most at risk

Spain remains dangerously exposed to the risk of a devastating earthquake along its Mediterranean coastline, geologists have warned – echoing two of the deadliest seismic events in the country’s history.

In 1829, a quake struck the-now British expat haven of Torrevieja, killing 389 people. Some 55 years later, in 1884, Arenas del Rey in Granada was rocked by another, leaving around 900 dead.

Both towns have remained relatively quiet since, but scientists say the same cannot be said for the future.

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A recent study published in Natural Hazards paints a stark picture of what could happen if similarly powerful tremors hit those areas today – now home to far larger populations and some of Spain’s most popular tourist destinations.

‘Spanish society is not prepared for this type of high-intensity event,’ the researchers warn, noting that such quakes ‘have occurred in the recent past and will surely occur in the future.’

Using the US Geological Survey’s PAGER system – designed to rapidly assess earthquake impact worldwide – the team modelled present-day consequences if the Torrevieja and Arenas del Rey quakes were to happen again. The projections are bleak.

In the case of Torrevieja, where the population has ballooned since the 19th century, particularly in peak tourist months, conservative estimates suggest thousands of fatalities and economic losses equivalent to nearly 10% of Spain’s GDP. The model points to an average death toll of around 5,700.

‘These would be serious losses never before recorded in Spain,’ the study says.

While Arenas del Rey would likely see a lower death toll due to depopulation in the 20th century, the impact would still be ‘catastrophic’, with losses running into the millions and significant casualties.

The researchers say similar scenarios are ‘entirely plausible’ elsewhere along the coast unless current urban, territorial, and tourism policies are urgently revised.

They conclude that without stronger planning and public awareness, Spain is ‘sleepwalking into disaster.’