Experts have predicted when the Costa del Sol train project will be ready if politicians decide it can go ahead.
It comes after the feasibility study for a coastal rail line between Nerja and Algeciras was finally signed this week.
The €991,911 deal (VAT included) has gone to a consortium led by WSP Spain APIA, which now has 18 months to determine whether the ambitious project is even viable.
In total, two and a half months have passed between the proposal and formalisation of the study – yet another delay in a process that many locals have seen start and stall many times before.
The study will assess both upgrades to the current Malaga–Fuengirola commuter line (C1) and potential new stretches of track, which will be divided into four sections west of Malaga and a fifth to the east, between the capital and Nerja.
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It’s the first real step in a long-discussed plan to connect the entire Costa del Sol by rail, a region that includes some of Spain’s fastest-growing (and most traffic-clogged) coastal towns.
Currently, Malaga’s C1 commuter line, which links the city with its international airport, Torremolinos, Benalmadena, and Fuengirola, regularly runs at over 117% capacity during the summer. While the line has seen improvements, it still struggles to keep pace with soaring demand.
And glaring gaps remain: Marbella, Estepona, and other high-density areas west of Fuengirola are not served by any rail at all. Nor is the eastern strip toward Nerja. The Government admits the current infrastructure isn’t cutting it, and says it’s time to explore whether a major expansion is feasible.
The feasibility study will include a new demand model, as well as detailed financial and socioeconomic profitability assessments. These findings will shape whether the Government gives the green light or shelves the plan yet again.
How long will it all take?
So how long would it take to see actual tracks being laid?
Experts cited by Malaga Hoy say the best case scenario would 11 years, but that the more realistic figure is around 16 years.
And that’s assuming everything goes to plan, including funding, permits, political will, the whole lot. It’s a big if, given this isn’t the first time the project has been kicked off only to be quietly buried later.
Recent proposals to extend the line just to Marbella put the cost between €2.5 and €2.7 billion. Seopan, Spain’s construction lobby, pegs the full corridor cost at nearly €6.7 billion.
Among those weighing in are Angel Garcia Vidal from the Malaga Association of Civil Engineers, veteran transport consultant Lluis Sanvicens (whose firm also submitted a bid), and Jose Alba, head of ARCS, which authored a separate rail proposal funded by Unicaja. All agree on one thing: the timeline hinges not just on technical studies, but political decisions and money.
Here’s the likely preparation timeline, barring surprises:
- Feasibility study: 18 months
- Decision phase: 6 months
- Informative study: another 18 months
- Environmental impact review: 2 to 3 years
That puts the first concrete step at least five years away, assuming no hiccups. And that’s before bidding, permits, construction, and testing even begin.
Then comes the construction phase. Works will be carried out in segments – each roughly 15 to 20 kilometers long – with each section taking about two years to complete.
Simultaneously, expropriations would need to be arranged. If the process goes into fast-track mode, experts estimate it could be put out to tender within six months, and completed in another six.
With expropriations done and approvals in place, the actual tendering of construction contracts would take around a year. Again, this would likely happen in segments.
That’s why no one seriously talks about completing the build in less than four years – after all the paperwork, studies, and approvals are done. And in Spain, those timelines can stretch much longer.
So, in other words, don’t expect the Costa del Sol train to become a reality before 2040.
