Spain is expected to sell around 8% fewer homes in 2027, but buyers will still face higher prices as a shortage of properties keeps the market under pressure.

The latest forecast from property firm Forcadell and the University of Barcelona predicts a similar fall in sales by the end of 2026.

House prices are expected to rise by just over 10% this year, with annual growth slowing to below 5% by the end of 2027.

It marks a sharp reversal from the same researchers’ forecast a year ago.

They had expected 850,000 homes to change hands in 2026, up 7.5% on the previous year, and predicted an 8% rise in prices. They now expect fewer sales and a steeper increase in prices.

Why prices are still rising

The report points to a shortage of homes in the face of continued demand.

Construction began on 137,330 homes in Spain in 2025, equivalent to just 18% of the 762,540 started in 2006, the peak in the study’s figures.

Spanish house prices rose by 44.8% between 2019 and 2025, compared with an EU average of 34.5%, before adjusting for inflation.

The report says saving enough for a deposit and purchase costs remains a major hurdle, especially for younger buyers and those without financial help from family.

New mortgages could also become more expensive in 2027 if inflation persists and the European Central Bank raises interest rates again, the authors warn.

Rents could rise by up to 4%

The report forecasts that rents could climb by up to 4% in 2027, after rising by 46.9% between 2018 and 2025.

The number of homes available to rent fell by around 35% between December 2021 and December 2025, according to figures cited in the report.

That measure counts properties on the market at those points in time. The total rental stock also includes homes already occupied by tenants.