The Partido Popular and Vox would command a comfortable parliamentary majority with their Navarra allies if an election were held tomorrow, a new poll has suggested.

According to the SocioMetrica survey for conservative newspaper El Español, the right-wing bloc would secure 203 seats, comfortably above the 176 needed for an absolute majority in Congress.

The poll is the first to be carried out following the devastating Toledo rail disaster that has left at least 69 people dead.

Pressure has been mounting pressure on Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez after he decided to hold onto Transport Minister Oscar Puente.

However, the poll suggests the disaster hasn’t yet proven catastrophic for the PSOE, which has only lost two seats compared to a survey performed a week earlier – while the PP gained two and Vox gained one.

Alberto Nuñez Feijóo’s PP is projected to win 137 seats with 32.2% of the vote. Another two seats for the joint UPN-PP list in Navarra would bring its combined representation to 139.

Vox would take 64 seats with 19.1%, almost doubling the 33 seats it won in 2023.

The PSOE, meanwhile, would fall to 106 seats on 26.6%, down from 108 in the previous survey and 121 at the last general election.

Parties belonging to Sanchez’s 2023 investiture bloc would collectively hold 145 seats under the projections, leaving them 31 short of an absolute majority.

The survey also points to further losses for the national parties to the PSOE’s left.

Ada Colau’s Frente Amplio would secure just five seats with 4.4% of the vote, one fewer than in the previous poll.

Podemos would win no seats where it stands alone. Its prospects would instead depend on regional alliances, including its joint list with ERC in Catalunya, which is projected to take nine seats.

Vox would overtake the PSOE in Murcia, Almeria, Toledo, Avila and Guadalajara, as well as Ceuta and Melilla, according to the survey.

In Andalucía, Adelante Andalucía is projected to enter Congress with two seats. The Front Valencia alliance would secure three.

Elsewhere, EH Bildu would win seven seats, ahead of the PNV on four, while Junts would take six.

The poll lands as Puente faces growing calls to resign following Wednesday’s collision near Urda.

He ruled out stepping down on Friday, arguing that taking responsibility meant remaining in office and facing questions.

Puente is expected to present a report and an initial support package for victims at Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting before appearing before Congress’s Permanent Deputation.