Pedro Sanchez’s party would win a general election if it were held tomorrow, a new poll has suggested.

The September barometer by the state-run Centro de Investigaciones Sociologicas (CIS) predicts the PSOE would win 31% of the vote.

Despite dropping two points since the last poll, it puts them comfortably ahead of the Partido Popular, which would garner 25.5%.

The poll is the first carried out by the CIS since more than 70,000 migrants entered Ceuta at the end of July, triggering a political crisis that has dominated the national agenda.

The biggest gains were recorded by hard-right Vox, which climbed to 16.6%, up 1.3 percentage points from July and well above the 12.39% it secured at the 2023 general election.

The figures paint a difficult picture for Spain’s governing coalition.

Left-wing Sumar dropped to 5.7%, its lowest level of support during the current parliamentary term.

Combined, the PSOE and Sumar stand at 36.7%, compared with 42.1% for the PP and Vox.

Podemos, meanwhile, rose to 3.7%, while Se Acabo La Fiesta (SALF), led by MEP Luis ‘Alvise’ Perez, fell to 1.8%.

Among the regional parties, ERC registered 2.5% compared with 0.7% for Junts, while EH Bildu stood at 1.3% and the PNV at 0.7%.

The CIS interviewed 4,042 people between September 1 and 4, making it the public pollster’s first major snapshot of voting intentions following the summer and the Ceuta crisis.

Immigration concern actually falls

Despite the political fallout from Ceuta, immigration has fallen down the list of issues Spaniards consider the country’s biggest problems.

It was mentioned by 19.7% of respondents, down from 23.4% in the previous barometer, moving from second to third place.

A separate category specifically referring to the ‘crisis with Morocco – Ceuta and Melilla borders’ was mentioned by just 4.8%.

Housing remains comfortably the country’s biggest concern, cited by 37.5% of respondents, although that was down 5.5 points from July.

Economic problems moved into second place at 21.6%, up from 17.3%.

Sanchez remains preferred PM

Sanchez also remains the preferred candidate to lead the Spanish government.

Some 25% chose Sanchez, compared with 13.2% for PP leader Alberto Nuñez Feijoo and 9.8% for Vox leader Santiago Abascal.

However, the results also reveal widespread dissatisfaction with Spain’s political leadership.

Some 67.2% said they had little or no confidence in Sanchez, compared with 31.5% who had a lot or quite a lot of confidence in him.

Feijoo performed even worse on that measure, with 79.2% expressing little or no confidence in the PP leader and just 19% saying they trusted him.

Meanwhile, 23.8% of respondents said they did not want any of the principal political figures as prime minister.

Sanchez received an average leadership rating of 4.18 out of 10, his worst result of 2026.

The poll nevertheless leaves the PSOE with a 5.5-point lead over the PP, despite the Socialists losing ground following a turbulent summer.