Andalucia is entering the final hours of Sunday’s crucial regional election.

According to the latest internal polling, four provinces could decide the outcome of the election – and potentially whether the incumbent Partido Popular (PP) president Juanma Moreno secures an outright majority or is forced to rely on the hard-right Vox to govern.

The battlegrounds are believed to be Cordoba, Cadiz, Malaga and Granada, where the final seats remain too close to call.

The outcome in those provinces is also expected to determine the strength of the PSOE opposition and the battle for dominance on the left between Por Andalucia and Adelante Andalucia.

Granada has emerged as one of the most closely watched provinces in the final stretch of the campaign.

Moreno visited three provinces on Friday alone – stopping in Sevilla, Granada and Malaga – while Adelante Andalucia leader Jose Ignacio Garcia has focused heavily on trying to win a seat there for the first time.

Granada elects 13 MPs to the Andalucian parliament, with parties battling over what are known in Spain’s electoral system as the ‘restos’ – leftover provincial votes that often determine the final seat allocation.

Cordoba and Malaga are considered especially important for the conservative Partido Popular, while Cadiz is viewed as critical territory for the PSOE.

Meanwhile, Sevilla – Andalucia’s largest electoral province with 18 seats – became the centrepiece of final campaign rallies on Friday.

Santiago Abascal chose the iconic Plaza Virgen de los Reyes, beneath the Giralda, for Vox’s closing photo opportunity.

Por Andalucia leader Antonio Maíllo headed instead to the working-class neighbourhood of Tiro de Linea, traditionally a socialist stronghold, while Adelante Andalucia staged its final event in the Alameda de Hercules, an area often cited as a symbol of Sevilla’s growing tourism-driven transformation.

The final campaign messages remained largely unchanged.

Moreno continued presenting himself as the candidate of ‘stability’, warning voters that only a strong PP majority could avoid ‘blackmail’ from smaller parties.

‘There is a bloc of opposition made up of PSOE, Vox, Por Andalucia and Adelante Andalucia, and then there is the bloc of government,’ he said during one appearance.

‘Their only objective is to break Andalucia’s stability.’

Abascal responded by insisting Vox would not allow itself to be ‘blackmailed by anyone’, after personally throwing himself into the campaign with multiple daily appearances across the region.

On the left, PSOE candidate Maria Jesus Montero again focused heavily on defending public healthcare and public services, backed once more by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who has joined her repeatedly throughout the campaign.

Montero also addressed the recent deaths of Guardia Civil officers in Huelva, expressing her ‘absolute respect and support’ for Spain’s security forces.

Por Andalucia, meanwhile, claimed its grassroots ‘door-to-door’ campaign had reached more than 200,000 homes across Andalucia.

Maillo said his party had focused on ‘real problems’ affecting working-class neighbourhoods, while accusing the PP of crossing lines during the campaign.

Adelante Andalucia believes it could still spring a surprise result, with Garcia recently claiming he had begun attracting undecided Vox voters.

Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.