The conservative Partido Popular (PP) would comfortably win an election if Spaniards went to the polls today, according to a new poll-of-polls analysis.
The findings come as Pedro Sanchez’s PSOE-led government comes under mounting political pressure.
The average of major national surveys published so far this year puts the PP on 34.1% of the vote, compared with 27.6% for Sanchez’s PSOE.
The gap of 6.5 percentage points is significantly wider than at the start of the year and marks a sharp deterioration for the PM following the fallout from various corruption scandals.
If translated into seats, the PP, led by Antonio Nuñez Feijoo, would secure around 150 MPs, 13 more than it won at the 2023 general election, while PSOE would fall to 110 seats, losing 11 compared with its current tally.
Despite the growing lead, Feijoo would still need support from hard-right party Vox to govern.
Santiago Abascal’s party continues to strengthen, with polling averages putting it on 14.5% of the vote and 44 seats.
Together, PP and Vox would command 194 seats in Congress – 18 above the 176 needed for an absolute majority.
The figures highlight the collapse of Spain’s left-wing bloc. Sumar, led by Yolanda Díaz, would fall to just 10 seats, less than a third of its current parliamentary representation, while Podemos would secure six seats.
Combined, the two parties would hold only half the number of MPs they won together at the 2023 election.
Meanwhile, the regional parties that have helped keep Sanchez in power appear largely unchanged. Junts and ERC would each retain seven seats, while Basque rivals EH Bildu and the PNV would both stand on six seats.
The projections come at a difficult moment for the government following the corruption allegations surrounding former PSOE organisation secretary Santos Cerdan.
While Sanchez has so far retained the backing of his parliamentary allies, speculation over a possible snap election has intensified as support for the Socialists continues to erode.
According to the poll averages, a repeat of the current governing coalition would no longer be mathematically viable.
Sanchez and his allies would collectively command around 120 seats – 32 fewer than the bloc secured at the last general election.
