Pedro Sanchez has cut the Partido Popular’s lead to two points ahead of the general election on November 29, according to a new poll.

The 40dB. survey for Cadena SER and El Pais puts the PP on 31.9%, unchanged from October, while the PSOE climbs almost two points to 29.9%.

It means the Socialists are within touching distance of 30% for the first time since December 2024.

The increase would give Sanchez’s party 119 seats, seven more than in October’s projection. Alberto Nuñez Feijoo’s PP would remain the largest party with 131 seats, down one.

The poll was based on 2,000 interviews conducted between November 2 and 4, after the Urda train disaster and as Oscar Puente resigned as transport minister.

The survey found no sign of an electoral backlash against the government over its handling of the crash.

Vox loses ground after three months of gains

Meanwhile, Santiago Abascal’s far-right Vox slipped almost a point to 18%, taking it from 66 to 61 projected seats. It would still make the biggest gains of any party compared with the 2023 election.

Some 85.5% of people who voted Vox in 2023 said they would do so again, down from 92.8% a month earlier. The PSOE’s voter retention rose by four points over the same period.

Together, the PP and Vox would win 192 seats, down from 198 in October but still 16 above the 176 needed for an outright majority in Congress. The two parties clear that threshold in every scenario modelled by the pollster.

The PSOE and Frente Amplio would have 129 seats between them, two fewer than the PP alone. Frente Amplio, led by Ada Colau and Emilio Delgado, is projected to win 10 seats on 5% of the vote. Podemos would take 1.2% and lose its representation in Congress despite its deal with Gabriel Rufian.

More than half uneasy about Vox entering government

Nearly half of respondents, 48.6%, expect the PP to win. Asked who they would prefer to come first, 33% chose the PSOE and 24% picked the PP.

A PP-Vox coalition was the most popular government option in the poll, although 53.4% expressed negative feelings about Vox taking ministerial posts.

Around a third said the prospect worried them and one in five said it made them afraid. Among those who voted PP in 2023, 57% viewed Vox entering government favourably.

Sanchez remains the most popular choice for prime minister, with 30% picking him as the best person for the job. Feijoo was on 20%, just ahead of Abascal on 19.8%.