With just a month to go until Andalucia heads to the polls on May 17, the latest survey suggests Juanma Moreno is within touching distance of another outright majority.

The new barometer from the Centro de Estudios Andaluces broadly confirms what other polls have been indicating: the conservative Partido Popular remains dominant, Vox is growing, and the left remains fragmented.

PP close to governing alone again

The PP is forecast to win 42.8% of the vote, only slightly down on its 2022 performance, but still enough to leave Moreno on the cusp of governing solo.

In seat terms, the party is projected to take between 54 and 57. With the absolute majority threshold set at 55, that puts Moreno right on the line – potentially just short, but within striking distance.

The current parliament gives the PP 58 seats, meaning a small drop is expected, but not enough to threaten its dominance.

Moreno himself recently claimed he is around 15,000 votes away from securing a majority outright.

Vox rises but stays third

Vox is the main beneficiary on the right, climbing to 15% of the vote, meaning it is up 1.5 points compared to the last election.

That would translate into between 17 and 20 seats, a clear improvement on its current 14. However, despite the growth, it remains firmly in third place.

PSOE slump deepens

For the Socialists, the picture is far more troubling.

Led by Maria Jesus Montero, the PSOE is projected to secure 21% of the vote, holding second place but continuing its downward trend.

That would leave the party with between 26 and 27 seats, down from its current 30, and marking a further deterioration on what was already its worst-ever result in Andalucía under Juan Espadas.

Some polls have even placed the PSOE below the 20% mark, in a scenario that would represent an unprecedented collapse.

Fragmented left gains slightly

The losses on the Socialist side appear to be benefiting parties further to the left.

Por Andalucia is projected to take 7.8% of the vote, translating into five to six seats, while Adelante Andalucia could secure between two and three seats after a modest rise.

Even so, the left remains divided, limiting its ability to challenge the PP’s dominance.

Moreno leads on ratings

Moreno also tops the leadership rankings, with a score of 5.46 and recognition among nearly 95% of voters.

The only leader to score higher is Jose Ignacio Garcia, who achieves a 5.56 rating — though he is known by just 15% of the electorate.

Montero trails with a score of 3.74, while Antonio Maíllo and Manuel Gavira also remain below the pass mark.

Compared to late 2025, the PP appears to have recovered ground after setbacks linked to healthcare controversies, while Vox’s surge has slowed slightly.

The PSOE, meanwhile, continues to bleed support.

Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.