Andalucia is set for a drier and warmer October than usual, meteorologists have predicted.
The region is holding onto highs of 37C this week, as summer begins to come to a close and autumn gets underway.
But despite expectations of cooler days ahead, the relief will be limited. According to Spain’s national weather agency Aemet, autumn is likely to be warmer and drier than average across the region.
Speaking at a press briefing, Aemet’s Juan de Dios del Pino said there is a 60% probability this autumn will be hotter than usual – though he was quick to point out that probabilities are not guarantees.
Still, the trend is clear. Forecast models suggest a thermal anomaly of between 0.5C and 1C, which Del Pino called ‘a significant deviation.’
The average temperature across Andalucia typically sits at 17.3C in autumn, but this year it could edge closer to 17.8C or even 18.3C.
The eastern provinces – Almeria and Granada – are expected to feel the greatest impact, with up to a 70% chance of above-average temperatures.
Drier days ahead, but with uncertainty
On the rainfall front, the outlook remains uncertain. AEMET estimates a 45% probability that autumn will be drier than normal, though there’s still a 55% chance it could be average or even wetter.
In practical terms, rainfall may fall short by 10 to 50 litres per square metre, compared to the seasonal average of 180 litres/m².
Last year’s autumn wasn’t particularly wet either, with most of the rain concentrated into a single intense month marked by one Atlantic storm, two DANA events, and two ex-hurricanes – an unusual pattern for the season.
Del Pino explained that beyond a 10-day window, it’s difficult to offer reliable forecasts. The region is too close to the African climatic boundary, making long-term modelling difficult.
He predicted a rollercoaster of short bursts of heat followed by brief cool spells, punctuated by sporadic rain.
‘Climate change is a fact’
‘Climate change is a fact. All the data confirm it,’ del Pino added, pointing to the record-breaking heat this summer as just one more indicator.
He explained that while astronomical cycles naturally shift the climate over centuries, the current changes are accelerating rapidly due to the greenhouse effect – and they won’t slow down unless the causes are addressed.
The data backs him up. This summer, Sevilla recorded its first month ever with daily highs above 40C, and Andalucia as a whole has just experienced its hottest summer in over 60 years.
Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.
