A right-wing bloc comprising the Partido Popular (PP) and Vox would secure a commanding majority in Congress if Pedro Sanchez called an early general election, a new poll has predicted.
The rapid SocioMetrica survey for El Español predicts that Alberto Nuñez Feijoo’s PP would win 143 seats with 33.4% of the vote.
That would leave the party six seats above its result in the 2023 general election, although still short of the 176 needed to govern alone.
Vox, however, is projected to almost double its parliamentary representation, surging from 33 to 62 MPs with 18.1% of the vote.
Together, the PP and Vox would control 205 of the 350 seats in Congress. With the single projected MP from UPN, the wider right-wing bloc would reach 206 seats, some 30 above the threshold for an absolute majority.
PSOE falls to 106 seats
Sanchez’s PSOE would finish second with 26.5% of the vote and 106 seats, according to the survey.
That would represent a loss of 15 MPs compared with the 2023 election.
The proposed Frente Amplio alliance to the left of the PSOE would secure just six seats with 5.3% of the vote.
By comparison, Sumar won 31 seats and 12.3% in 2023, meaning the new alliance would lose 25 MPs and approximately seven percentage points.
Podemos is projected to win only two seats, one in Madrid and another in Catalonia.
Combined, all of the parties that supported Sanchez’s 2023 investiture would hold around 143 seats, according to the poll, one fewer than the PP and far short of a governing majority.
The result would make it virtually impossible for Sanchez to recreate his current parliamentary alliance.
Vox makes biggest gains
Vox would be the poll’s biggest winner, gaining 29 seats and approaching the 20% vote share that could significantly improve its representation across Spain’s provincial constituencies.
The party’s strongest growth would come in Andalucia, where it is forecast to gain six MPs, and Catalonia, where it would add four.
Vox would also make gains in Madrid, Castilla y Leon, Castilla-La Mancha and the Valencia region.
The survey suggests that the party is benefiting from growing frustration with the Government, while the PP continues to retain the highest proportion of its previous voters.
The PP would keep 84% of those who backed it in 2023, compared with 83.5% for Vox.
The PSOE, by contrast, would retain only 64.2% of its previous support.
An estimated 369,000 former socialist voters would switch to the PP and 274,000 to Vox, while another 690,000 would move into the undecided category.
Poll comes amid election speculation
The survey was published as Sanchez considers whether to call an early general election following the defeat of two Government housing decrees in Congress.
Junts joined the PP and Vox in voting down the measures on Friday, exposing the fragility of the coalition’s parliamentary support.
Senior PSOE figures are reportedly urging Sanchez to call an election for November 29, although the prime minister has not publicly confirmed his plans.
Most recent polls place the PP ahead of the PSOE and indicate that the combined PP-Vox bloc would comfortably exceed the 176-seat majority threshold.
A broader polling analysis published by El Pais placed the PP on approximately 137 seats and Vox on 62, giving the two parties a combined 199, slightly below the SocioMetrica projection but still a clear majority.
SocioMetrica surveyed 1,000 Spanish adults entitled to vote using an online CAWI panel, with the sample balanced by sex, age, province and recalled vote.
Because it was a non-probability sample, the pollster said a conventional margin of error did not apply, although it estimated a balancing error of approximately three percentage points.
