Spain’s two main right-wing parties would secure a commanding parliamentary majority if a general election were held today, according to a new poll.

The September DYM Polibarometer predicts the Partido Popular (PP) and Vox would win between 202 and 209 seats combined, well above the 176 required to control Congress.

The survey questioned 1,017 Spanish adults online between September 16 and 21, with the next general election expected in around 10 months unless prime minister Pedro Sanchez calls an early vote.

Alberto Nuñez Feijoo’s PP remains the largest party on 34.7%, down only 0.2 percentage points compared with July.

That result would give it between 144 and 148 MPs.

Vox, meanwhile, has increased its projected support from 16.5% to 17.3%, placing Santiago Abascal’s party on between 58 and 61 seats.

Even at the lower end of both projections, the two parties would command 202 MPs.

Vox also enjoys the most loyal electorate, with 86% of its previous voters saying they would support the party again. The PP’s retention rate stands at 75.7%.

Around 10.4% of former PP voters are expected to switch to Vox, while 8.7% of previous PSOE supporters say they would now vote for Feijoo’s party.

The PSOE has fallen from 27% in July to 26.3%, reducing its projected representation from 104–108 seats to 102–105.

Although the decline is relatively modest, Sanchez would have almost no realistic path to a majority with his current left-wing partners.

Sumar is forecast to secure just six or seven MPs, compared with the 31 seats it holds in the current parliament, while Podemos would take between two and three.

The government’s public rating has also fallen by 0.4 points during the Ceuta migration crisis, dropping to 3.7 out of 10.

Some 54.2% of respondents gave the administration a failing grade, while 40.4% approved of its performance.

Housing was the area in which voters were most likely to believe conditions had deteriorated during the current parliamentary term, at 77.8%, followed by immigration at 76.3% and inflation at 75.8%.

None of Spain’s principal political leaders received a passing score.

Feijoo recorded the highest rating with 3.2 out of 10, followed by Sanchez and Yolanda Diaz on 3.0 and Abascal on 2.9.