Andalucia could be facing its first official heatwave of the summer within days, according to state weather agency Aemet.

Forecasters have warned that temperatures may climb above 40C by the end of next week, raising the possibility that the conditions required to declare a heatwave could be met for the first time this year.

Juan de Dios del Pino, Aemet’s delegate in Andalucia, said weather models are showing signs of a significant temperature surge across parts of Spain, although he stressed it is still too early to confirm a heatwave with certainty.

‘By the end of next week we cannot rule out the first heatwave,’ he told reporters.

For a heatwave to be officially declared, exceptionally high temperatures must affect at least 10% of Spain’s territory and persist for a minimum of three consecutive days.

According to current forecasts, the hottest conditions would be concentrated in major river valleys including the Guadalquivir, Guadiana, Tagus and Ebro, where temperatures could push beyond the 40C mark.

Hotter-than-normal summer expected

Aemet’s seasonal outlook suggests Andalucia is likely to experience a warmer-than-average summer.

The agency estimates there is a 60% probability that eastern Andalucia, particularly Almeria province, will see above-normal temperatures during June, July and August. Across the rest of the region, the probability stands at 50%.

The biggest temperature anomalies are expected in northern parts of Andalucia, where average temperatures could end up between 0.5C and 1C above the long-term norm. Central areas are forecast to be between 0C and 0.5C warmer than average.

Del Pino said this means some northern inland areas, including parts of Sierra Morena, may experience a greater rise in temperatures than traditional hotspot areas further south.

Rainfall outlook remains uncertain

While temperatures are expected to be above average, the rainfall forecast is far less clear.

Eastern Andalucia has a 50% chance of receiving more rain than normal this summer, according to Aemet. In central provinces such as Jaen, Granada and Cordoba, that probability falls to 40%.

For western provinces including Sevilla, Cadiz and Huelva, forecasters say there is currently no clear signal.

The chances of a dry, average or wet summer are evenly split, making long-range rainfall predictions highly uncertain.

Andalucia continues to warm

The warning comes as Aemet released new figures showing that the region is continuing to warm.

This spring was Andalucia’s fifth warmest since records began in 1961, with an average temperature of 16.1C. Temperatures were around 0.8C higher than during the spring of 2025.

Although March started relatively cool, April became the second warmest April on record in the region, while May ended with an intense burst of heat.

On May 31, temperatures reached 40.5C in Sevilla, continuing a recent trend of extreme heat arriving earlier in the year. According to Aemet, the first 40C day traditionally arrived after June 11, but it has appeared earlier in several recent years, including 2015, 2022, 2024, 2025 and now 2026.

With summer officially beginning in just a few days, forecasters are urging residents to keep a close eye on updated weather warnings as temperatures continue to rise across southern Spain.

Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.