Begoña Gomez is moving closer to a courtroom but any trial could still be a long way off, with legal experts warning the case may drag on for years.
Judge Juan Carlos Peinado has now formally closed his investigation into the wife of Pedro Sanchez and triggered the final phase before a trial can be opened.
All parties have been given this week to submit their final arguments, but the path to a verdict remains lengthy and uncertain.
Peinado has made clear the case is likely to be heard before a jury, in a decision that could significantly slow proceedings in an already congested justice system.
What is Gomez accused of?
Gomez is under investigation for alleged influence peddling, corruption in business, embezzlement and misappropriation.
At the heart of the case is her professional activity linked to the Universidad Complutense de Madrid, where she co-directed a university chair.
The judge believes she may have used her proximity to the prime minister to influence public officials and secure privileged access for certain companies.
The investigation also examines whether private funds linked to that project were diverted away from their intended institutional purpose, and whether companies received advantages in public contracts in return for their involvement.
Gomez has consistently denied wrongdoing, and sources close to her insist her conduct has been ‘impeccable’.
Trial unlikely before 2027
Despite the case advancing procedurally, legal experts say a trial is unlikely before mid-2027 at the earliest.
Lawyer Ismael Istambul estimates it could take between 12 and 24 months just to reach trial, while magistrate Fernando Portillo believes the entire case could take up to four years to fully resolve.
The delays are partly due to the heavy backlog in Spain’s courts, but also the added complexity of jury trials.
Jury selection a major hurdle
If the case proceeds as expected, it will be heard by a jury of nine citizens, overseen by a judge.
Selecting that jury could prove particularly difficult given the political sensitivity and media attention surrounding the case. Each side is allowed to veto up to four jurors, increasing the risk of delays during the selection process.
Higher risk but no guarantees
Data from the Consejo General del Poder Judicial suggests jury trials in Spain result in convictions more often than standard court cases, around 90% compared to roughly 75%.
However, high-profile cases have bucked that trend, and legal experts caution that outcomes remain highly case-specific.
Long road ahead
With the investigation now closed, the case has entered a decisive phase, but one that could stretch on for years.
While Gomez is now closer than ever to standing trial, the combination of legal complexity, political stakes and systemic delays means any final verdict remains a distant prospect.
