After more than a decade of near-constant growth, Spain’s property market may finally be approaching its turning point, experts have said.
Since prices hit rock bottom in 2013, in the aftermath of the 2008 crash, values have climbed steadily across almost every sector, from new-builds to rentals and resale homes.
But according to Juan Velayos, president of The District real-estate fair, the industry is beginning to sense the first signs of a correction.
‘We’re normalising a cycle that has been running hot for years,’ he told reporters at the close of the Barcelona event, held from September 30 to October 2.
‘Prices in the build-to-sell segment are at historic highs, and it’s natural that sooner or later we’ll see an adjustment.’
Market analysts expect prices to keep edging up through 2026 – around five per cent on average, by most estimates – before levelling off and eventually sliding for three to five years from 2027.
Whether that slowdown turns into a full-blown dip, said Velayos, will depend on how investment trends adapt to political and regulatory shifts.
Global funds make Spain their top pick
One clear takeaway from The District 2025, which drew more than 14,500 delegates from 37 countries, is Spain’s new status as Europe’s investor darling.
International capital from the United States, Asia and the Middle East is now flowing into Spain at a faster rate than into France, the UK or Italy.
Heavyweights such as Greystar – the American operator managing more than $76 billion in rental housing – have made Spain a priority market, while newer players like 011h, founded in 2020 by the creators of Privalia, are helping to push the sector towards greener, tech-driven construction.
‘Spain has learned to speak the language of global capital,’ said Greystar design director Gary McLuskey during a panel comparing the Spanish and Italian markets.
The event’s success reflects that momentum: The District 2025 closed with a 14% jump in attendance and an estimated economic impact of over €35 million for Barcelona.
The new frontier: social and affordable homes
Beyond the surge of foreign capital lies a more socially-minded trend. Investors are increasingly fixated on affordable housing, a sector that Spain desperately needs to expand.
Social housing currently accounts for just 2.5% of the national stock, far below the European average of 9.3%. Regional governments have begun to respond, with Catalonia planning 50,000 public homes by 2030 and Madrid pushing ahead with its Plan Vive initiative.
The shift isn’t purely altruistic. Affordable developments often satisfy stringent ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) criteria, making them attractive to major funds seeking sustainable portfolios.
With property prices still climbing and affordable housing at the top of the political agenda, Spain’s next real-estate cycle looks set to combine profit with purpose in a change of pace that many say is long overdue.
What about in Andalucia?
While the national market edges towards a cooling phase, much of Andalucia is still basking in the afterglow of record demand, particularly along the Costa del Sol, where international buyers continue to dominate.
In hotspots like Marbella, Estepona and Benahavis, new-build prices have surged by as much as 25% since 2020, fuelled by luxury investment from northern Europe and the Middle East – and estate agents say demand remains strong.
Further inland, towns such as Ronda, Antequera and Velez-Malaga could benefit from the growing interest in affordable housing. With land still available and regional authorities pushing for more mid-range rental projects, developers are beginning to look beyond the coast.
The Junta de Andalucia has also signalled plans to expand its stock of protected and public housing, echoing the broader national push towards affordability. Local officials have hinted at tax incentives and faster planning approval for schemes that meet social or environmental criteria.
