Spain’s hard-right Vox party has long vowed to ‘recover’ Gibraltar for Spain, but could it actually force Britain to surrender the Rock?

According to one of Britain’s leading political and historical experts, the answer is a rather resounding no.

Professor Richard Gillespie (pictured above inset), is a historian specialising in Gibraltar and Anglo-Spanish relations.

He believes there is no realistic route for a future Vox-backed government to unravel the recently agreed UK-EU Gibraltar deal – nor force a transfer of sovereignty against the wishes of Gibraltarians.

His assessment comes as Vox continues to campaign for Spanish sovereignty over Gibraltar, describing the British Overseas Territory as an ‘occupied’ part of Spain.

In its general election manifesto, the party pledges to reject any agreement between Spain, the UK or the EU that does not ‘respect Spain’s sovereign rights’ over Gibraltar – branding it the last British colony on European soil.

It also says it would seek a firm commitment from Brussels to back Spain’s sovereignty claim and has repeatedly called for negotiations with Britain aimed at returning the Rock to Spanish control.

Since the recent UK-EU Gibraltar agreement, the party has hardened its rhetoric even further, insisting there can be ‘no shared sovereignty’ and arguing that Spain should refuse any deal that, in its view, entrenches British rule over the territory.

‘A Vox-led government is not currently in prospect’

However, its ambitions for the Rock are far from being realised, according to Gillespie, who begins by pouring cold water on the idea that Vox is on the verge of taking power.

‘I do not think that a Vox-led government is in prospect at the present time,’ he told the Spanish Eye.

‘Vox has certainly gained ground since the last general election, but its projected vote has stabilised of late at around 17-18%.’

Even if Vox entered government as the junior partner in a coalition with the Partido Popular (PP), he doubts Gibraltar would become a central priority.

‘I am not convinced that Gibraltar would be a priority issue for Vox were it to enter a PP-led coalition government,’ he said.

”National priority’, immigration in general and relations with Latin America seem to receive much more emphasis in its political discourse.’

Could Spain undo the new Gibraltar agreement?

Following years of negotiations, Britain, Spain and the EU recently reached a landmark agreement governing Gibraltar’s post-Brexit relationship with the Bloc.

Gillespie believes it would be extraordinarily difficult for any future Spanish government to dismantle it.

‘There would be compelling opposition to any suggestion that the UK-EU arrangements should be revisited,’ he said.

‘After the protracted negotiations that led to it, and what many see as positive outcomes for Gibraltar, Spain and the EU, there would be huge opposition to reopening it across the rest of the EU, the UK and Gibraltar itself.’

He added that the wider geopolitical picture also matters.

‘If the UK were to enter a security partnership with the EU and cooperate bilaterally with Spain in this policy area, there would be very strong reasons why majority opinion in Spain would not wish the Gibraltar sovereignty debate to get in the way of bigger imperatives.’

Britain would simply repeat its long-standing position

Asked how London would respond if Madrid renewed sovereignty demands under a future right-wing government, Gillespie’s answer was straightforward.

‘The UK would reiterate its traditional position and concentrate on other issues over which Spain and the UK cooperate.’

Britain has repeatedly said it will not enter into sovereignty negotiations unless the people of Gibraltar consent.

Does self-determination make sovereignty impossible?

While Gillespie notes that the legal position is more nuanced than is often portrayed, he says political reality overwhelmingly favours Gibraltar.

‘Perhaps not in a strict legal sense,’ he said when asked whether self-determination completely rules out any transfer of sovereignty.

‘But in practice the UK does make reference to the majority will of Gibraltarians and internationally many democratic forces would oppose an imposed transfer of sovereignty.’

He said ideas such as shared sovereignty could theoretically re-emerge in future, but only under very different circumstances.

‘Co-sovereignty ideas could surface again, and they did feature for a while in UK-Spain talks,’ he explained.

‘But they would only gain traction if Gibraltarians themselves changed their views, and for this Spain would first have to persuade them of the practical advantages.’

Border pressure would likely backfire

Could Spain instead exert pressure through border controls or diplomatic measures? History suggests that strategy would fail, Gillespie argues.

‘Pressure has tended to be totally counterproductive in the past,’ he said.

‘The diplomatic path has led to agreements, although only after a lot of comings and goings.’

The comment reflects decades of often strained relations between Madrid and Gibraltar, during which hardline tactics have generally strengthened rather than weakened Gibraltarian identity.

Vox’s more realistic ambitions

While dismissing the prospect of Gibraltar changing hands, Gillespie believes other parts of Vox’s agenda could prove far more influential.

‘They have put so much emphasis on the idea of ‘national priority’ being given to Spaniards over immigrants,’ he said.

‘And they have, to some extent, persuaded or forced the PP to accept the idea.’

As a result, he believes a future PP-Vox coalition would likely introduce tougher immigration policies.

‘I would certainly expect a right-wing Spanish coalition to take initiatives in this area.’

However, he cautioned that significant constitutional and practical obstacles would prevent Vox from fully implementing its vision.

‘A degree of compromise would be necessary for the broad idea to be implemented,’ he said.

‘My view is that it would be deeply divisive.’

Gillespie insisted that while Vox’s manifesto may demand the return of Gibraltar, the political, diplomatic and practical barriers make it near impossible to achieve.

Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.