Hard-right party Vox is enjoying a surge in support in Andalucia at the expense of the ruling conservative Partido Popular (PP), new polls show.
The results suggest that the incumbent president Juanma Moreno may be forced into a power-sharing deal with Vox, as the PP is at risk of losing their absolute majority.
According to the latest polling from CENTRA, the Junta’s own research agency, the PP would secure 40.7% of the vote if an election were held tomorrow.
It means the incumbent party would secure between 54 and 56 seats, a drop from its current 58, and below the absolute majority needed to control the 109-seat parliament.
The survey was also conducted between September 15 and October 1, a week before the regional health minister was forced to resign over the breast cancer testing scandal.
Socialists still struggling
Despite growing discontent, the PSOE remains stuck in neutral. The poll estimates 23.3% support for the Socialists, down from the 24.1% they received in 2022, when they won 30 seats. That would now translate into 26 to 29 seats, not enough to mount a credible comeback.
Party leader Maria Jesus Montero, although highly recognisable across the region, continues to trail far behind in approval ratings, unlike President Moreno, who remains the only major figure to score a positive rating.
Vox gaining ground
The hard-right Vox party continues to creep upwards in support. With an estimated 15.9% of the vote – up from 13.5% in the last election – it could increase its representation from 14 seats to between 16 and 18, positioning itself as a key player if the PP loses its outright control.
Vox’s gains could force Moreno into deeper cooperation or a formal coalition, something the PP has so far avoided on the regional level.
Fragmented left
On the left, the picture remains fragmented but slightly improved.
The coalition Por Andalucia–Sumar, still undecided on whether it will run as a unified bloc, is polling at 8%, up from 7.7% in 2022. If they run together again, they could secure 6 to 8 seats, compared to the 5 they currently hold.
Adelante Andalucia, the other progressive alliance, is also seeing a modest bump, rising from 4.6% to 6.4%, which could give them 3 seats, one more than their current two.
The poll suggests a narrowing of political space in Andalucia. While the PP remains dominant, a dip below the majority line would open the door to complex negotiations – likely with Vox – and could energise opposition parties hoping to reset the regional agenda.
Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.
