Juanma Moreno is the clear frontrunner to remain as Andalucia’s regional president, according to a new survey.

The poll, published by the respected Centro de Investigaciones Sociologicas (CIS), gives him a commanding lead over his closest rival, Maria Jesus Montero of the PSOE (Socialists).

The survey, based on 6,000 interviews and released at the start of the campaign for the May 17 elections, shows Moreno dominating both in personal ratings and voter preference.

Moreno scores an average rating of 5.87 as a candidate, with his management of the regional government rated at 5.79.

By contrast, Montero trails significantly on 3.93, placing her behind other left-wing figures and only ahead of Vox’s Manuel Gavira.

That gap is even more stark when voters are asked who they want as the next regional leader. Moreno is chosen by 41% of respondents, compared to just 17.5% backing Montero.

The survey suggests Moreno’s appeal extends beyond his own party base, in what has been dubbed ‘the Moreno effect’.

Even PSOE voters rate him at 4.49 on average, while giving their own candidate a higher 6. Among PP voters, however, the divide is overwhelming: Moreno scores an 8 compared to just 2.5 for Montero.

The broader perception of governance also favours the current regional administration.

Around 40% of respondents rate the Junta’s performance as good or very good, while only 25% view it negatively.

In contrast, nearly half of those surveyed rate the national government led by Pedro Sanchez as bad or very bad, with just 22% offering a positive assessment.

Despite this, the poll highlights an interesting contradiction. When questions shift to national politics rather than regional leadership, the PSOE emerges as the party with the strongest overall identification, ahead of the PP.

While the survey does not include a full voting projection, it combines direct voting intention with sympathy and past voting behaviour.

On that basis, the PP in Andalucia stands at 34.3%, comfortably ahead of the PSOE on 24.6%.

Support for Vox appears stable rather than surging, with direct voting intention at 8.8% and an estimated combined support of around 9.5%, suggesting no immediate threat to the PP’s dominance.

Taken together, the survey reinforces a familiar picture ahead of the vote: a strong personal mandate for Moreno, a struggling PSOE candidate, and a divided left.

Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.