Andalucia is heading to the polls on May 17, with regional president Juanma Moreno putting his hard-won absolute majority on the line.

Moreno’s Popular Party (PP) swept to a historic victory in 2022, winning 58 of the 109 seats in the Andalucian parliament and ending decades of Socialist dominance.

But this time, the numbers point to a more complicated outcome.

PP still ahead – but majority at risk

The latest poll averages suggest the PP remains comfortably in first place, with around 41.5% of the vote – more than 20 points ahead of the Socialists.

However, that support may not be enough to hold onto an outright majority.

Current projections put the PP on around 54 seats, just one short of the 55 needed to govern alone. That would leave Moreno reliant on outside support to stay in power.

Vox surge could make them kingmakers

The biggest shift comes from the hard-right Vox party, which is gaining ground and could play a decisive role after the election.

Polls suggest Vox could rise from 14 seats to around 21, with roughly 17% of the vote – closing the gap with the PSOE and positioning itself as a potential kingmaker.

If those numbers hold, Moreno may have little choice but to rely on Vox to form a government, marking a significant shift from his current position of governing solo.

PSOE faces further decline

For the Socialists, the outlook is bleak.

The party, now led in the region by Spain’s finance minister Maria Jesus Montero, is polling at around 20.5%, which would translate into a drop from 30 to roughly 26 seats – another historic low in a region it governed for nearly four decades.

Fragmented left struggles to gain ground

Meanwhile, parties to the left of the PSOE remain divided.

Por Andalucia is expected to hold steady at around five seats, while Adelante Andalucia could make modest gains, rising from two to four. But neither appears close to challenging the dominance of the right.

The Andalucian vote comes at the end of a broader run of regional elections across Spain, where right-wing parties have consistently outperformed the left.

In recent contests in regions like Aragon, Extremadura and Castilla y Leon, the right has approached or exceeded 60% of the vote, with Vox gaining support across the board.

Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.