The Partido Popular (PP) is on the brink of losing its absolute majority in Andalucia, a new poll suggests just months before regional elections.
According to the latest survey by the Andalucian Studies Centre (Centra), both the PP and the PSOE would lose ground if an election were held today, while Vox would continue to grow.
The publicly funded poll, published on Monday, is based on 3,600 interviews conducted between November 17 and 28.
It is the final Centra survey of the year and was carried out after the breast cancer screening controversy that led to the resignation of Andalucia’s health minister and several senior officials, but before allegations of sexual harassment emerged involving PSOE figures.
The next regional elections in Andalucia must take place no later than June 30, 2026.
PP shedding seats
If it were held tomorrow, Centra predicts the PP would win 40.2% of the vote, down 2.9 points compared with the June 2022 election. That would mean between 53 and 55 seats, compared with the current 58.
At the upper end of the range, the PP would cling on to an absolute majority by the narrowest of margins (55 of 109 seats). At the lower end, it would lose it altogether.
The findings confirm a trend already flagged in Centra’s October survey, which also pointed to a gradual erosion of support for incumbent president Juanma Moreno’s party.
PSOE stuck below 30 seats
Meanwhile, the PSOE is failing to recover following the leadership change from Juan Espadas to Maria Jesus Montero.
The party is forecast to win 21.4% of the vote, equating to between 25 and 28 seats, well below the 30 it currently holds in the Andalusian Parliament.
Vox gains ground
Vox emerges as the fastest-growing party and consolidates its position as the third political force in Andalucia.
Centra puts the party on 17.5% of the vote, up four points on 2022 and 1.6 points higher than in the previous survey.
That rise would give Vox between 19 and 22 seats, a significant increase on its current 14.
Fragmented left
On the alternative left, Por Andalucia, which previously brought together IU and Podemos, would secure 7.5% of the vote, slightly down on 2022, and win five to six seats.
Adelante Andalucía, the third force on the alternative left, would be one of only two parties, alongside Vox, to improve on its 2022 result. It is forecast to win 6.1% of the vote, up 1.5 points, translating into two to three seats, compared with two at present.
According to the survey, other parties would collectively take 5.6% of the vote, but none would gain representation in the Andalusian Parliament.
Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.
