Juanma Moreno is on track to hold onto his party’s absolute majority at the upcoming Andalucia elections, new polls show.
Three new surveys published by Spanish media outlets suggest the Partido Popular (PP) leader is within touching distance – or comfortably above – the 55 seats needed for an absolute majority in the regional parliament.
After winning 58 seats in 2022, Moreno appears poised to repeat the feat when the people go to the polls on May 17.
What the polls say
According to a poll by NC Report for La Razon, Moreno would secure 57 seats and SocioMetrica, for El Español, puts him on 56.
Meanwhile, GAD3’s poll for ABC gives a slightly tighter range of between 54 and 57 – still potentially enough to govern alone.
PSOE struggling to recover
On the left, the picture is far less encouraging for PSOE.
With Maria Jesus Montero leading the ticket, the party risks slipping even further from its 2022 result.
One poll places PSOE at just 28 seats – down from the 30 achieved under Juan Espadas – while others suggest a similar or only slightly improved performance.
In Madrid, however, party headquarters at Ferraz are not giving up.
Senior figures are planning a heavy campaign push, including a wave of ministerial visits to Andalucia to back Montero in the final stretch.
Vox steady but not decisive
On the right, Vox appears stable but not strong enough to shift the balance.
Estimates range between 14 and 16 seats, suggesting the party could slightly improve on previous result, but without enough momentum to challenge Moreno’s dominance.
Left fragmented
To the left of PSOE, divisions continue to weaken the broader bloc.
Smaller parties are projected to make only modest gains, and in some cases risk disappearing altogether.
Podemos, if it runs alone, could fail to enter parliament, while other left-wing alliances are expected to remain marginal.
Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.
