More than half of Andalucia believes that immigration is ‘too high’, a poll has found.
The survey was carried out by Social Data for Publicaciones del Sur, and suggests the economy, immigration and public safety are the major concerns for the southernmost region.
According to the poll, 52.8% of Andalucians believe there is ‘too much’ immigration in the region. A further 36.4% consider current levels to be ‘about right’, while just 5.7% think there is ‘too little’.
When these responses are cross-referenced with voting intention, the data points to immigration as a key driver behind support for the hard-right Vox party, led regionally by Manuel Gavira.
Among Vox voters, 93.5% say immigration levels are excessive – a figure that helps explain the party’s recent growth and the flow of voters from both the Partido Popular and previous abstainers.
Concern about immigration is also significant among PP voters, with 70% saying levels are too high, well above the regional average.
By contrast, voters on the left are more likely to describe immigration as being at an appropriate level.
At provincial level, Almeria – where Vox has traditionally performed strongly – records the highest levels of concern.
Cadiz, despite being one of the main entry points for migrants arriving via the Strait of Gibraltar, sits close to the regional average.
Cordoba stands out as the province where the highest proportion of respondents (41.7%) consider immigration levels to be appropriate.
On public safety, opinion is more evenly divided. Almost half of respondents (48%) believe security levels have remained the same. However, 40.4% feel the situation has worsened, compared with 10.7% who think it has improved.
Age differences are notable. Those aged between 25 and 44 tend to hold a more pessimistic view, while respondents over 55 are more likely to say the situation has improved.
According to the same poll, the Partido Popular is within reach of an absolute majority in Andalucia, just months before regional elections expected this spring.
It places Juanma Moreno’s party in a dominant position – and potentially less dependent on Vox than in other regions such as Extremadura or Aragon.
The poll gives the PP 42.7% of the vote, just half a point below its 2022 result. That would translate into between 53 and 57 seats in the Andalucian parliament.
The absolute majority threshold stands at 55 seats. The PP currently holds 58.
If replicated on election day, the result would leave Moreno either narrowly securing an outright majority or just short, but still in a stronger position than many had anticipated.
The PSOE would remain the second-largest force with 19.4% of the vote, but nearly four points down on the last election. That would reduce its representation from 30 seats to between 24 and 27.
Vox would be close behind and climb to 17.6%, up from 13.46% in 2022, securing between 20 and 23 seats.
The poll paints a picture of a centre-right bloc clearly ahead of a fragmented and weakened left.
Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.
