Spain’s ruling PSOE would be the most voted political party if an election were held tomorrow, an eye-opening poll has suggested.
Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists would claim 32.6% of the vote, according to the survey by the CIS (Centro de Investigaciones Sociologicas).
This places it 10 points above its opposition party, Partido Popular, which is projected to win 22.9% of the vote.
In more worrying news for the conservative party, hard-right Vox is now within striking distance, with the poll suggesting it would win 18.9% of the vote – placing it just four points behind.
If the numbers are accurate, it means that Vox is the party gaining the most momentum.
The survey was based on 4,027 interviews conducted between February 2 and 6.
It is the first major snapshot since the deadly train crash near Adamuz, Cordoba, that killed 46 people and triggered debate over rail safety.
It was also carried out during the Aragon regional election campaign, severe storm-related flooding across parts of Spain – particularly Andalucia – and controversy over immigration regularisation plans agreed by the government.
The margin of error stands at 1.6%.
Behind the top three, Sumar holds fourth place at 7%, slipping slightly, while Podemos edges up to 3.9%, halting its recent downward trend.
The anti-establishment platform Se Acabo la Fiesta (The Party’s Over), led by MEP Luis ‘Alvise’ Perez, climbs to 2.4%.
Among nationalist parties, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) is estimated at 2.5%, ahead of Junts per Catalunya at 1.2%. EH Bildu falls to 1%, almost level with the Partido Nacionalista Vasco (0.8%).
In terms of leadership approval, PM Sanchez remains the highest-rated national leader – though still below a passing mark – with 4.23 out of 10.
He is followed by Yolanda Diaz (3.97), Alberto Nuñez Feijoo (3.45) and Santiago Abascal (2.97), who posts the biggest improvement in score.
Asked who they would prefer as Prime Minister, 25.3% chose Sanchez. Abascal was second at 10.2%, narrowly ahead of Feijoo at 9.9%.
The housing crisis continues to dominate public anxiety, the poll also found.
A record 42.8% of respondents cite housing as one of Spain’s three main national problems, and 27.6% name it as their top personal concern.
Immigration jumps sharply into second place at 20.3%, rising 4.4 points amid the national debate on regularisation. Economic concerns follow at 18.1%, with government and political parties (17.8%) and job quality (15.9%) also ranking highly.
The survey also shows strong appetite for constitutional reform.
A striking 84.3% believe Spain’s Constitution should be updated, while just 12.5% think no reform is needed.
Among those favouring change, 36.7% want updates to social, economic and labour rights, 16.6% would address the model of state (monarchy versus republic), and 16.3% highlight territorial issues.
Despite criticism, 82.3% still believe the Constitution has strengthened social rights in Spain, and 71.6% say it has improved Spain’s international standing.
