The Junta de Andalucia is quietly gearing up for the region’s next elections, earmarking more than €14 million for logistics, counting systems, and institutional campaigns.
It comes as speculation grows over whether incumbent President Juanma Moreno, from the conservative Partido Popular, might bring the vote forward.
While the government insists that the legislature will run its full course until June 2026, Moreno has publicly floated the idea of an earlier ballot.
In an interview with Diario Sur earlier this summer, he cited Spain’s ‘national instability’ as a possible reason to align Andalucian elections with anticipated snap national polls.
Opposition groups, meanwhile, are already preparing for the chance of a call before the year’s end.
Election logistics already in motion
Regardless of the eventual date, the wheels of preparation are turning. The Consejeria de la Presidencia has approved a package of tenders that mirror the spending seen in the 2022 elections, when the bill came to €13.9 million.
This time, the figure is €14.4 million, with most of the increase driven by updated contract prices and reinforced measures around cybersecurity and accessibility.
The timing question
For now, the official line from San Telmo Palace is clear: Andalusians will go to the polls in June 2026.
But the president’s repeated hints about an earlier date – and the opposition’s readiness for it – suggest that the debate is far from closed.
What do the polls say?
According to the last poll in July, the Partido Popular de Andalucia (PP-A) would once again secure a resounding victory.
The survey was carried out by Barometro Andaluz and released by Centra on July 17.
The ruling conservatives, led by Moreno, would capture 41.7% of the vote, it predicted, giving them a commanding 19.9-point lead over the opposition PSOE-A.
The poll, based on interviews with 3,600 residents across the region between June 13 and July 1, suggests the Socialists would crash to just 19.8%, their weakest ever showing in a regional vote.
That translates into 24–26 seats, a sharp fall from the 30 seats secured in the 2022 election.
Vox rising, left-wing coalitions make gains
While the PP and PSOE both lose ground compared to the last regional vote, three parties on the opposition benches are showing signs of growth.
- Vox consolidates itself as the third force in Andalucian politics with 14.7% of the vote, up 1.2 points from 2022. This would give the far-right party 16–18 seats, compared to the 14 it currently holds.
- Sumar, which in Andalucia competes under the coalition Por Andalucia, would reach 10% (+2.3 points), gaining up to 8–9 seats from the current five.
- Adelante Andalucia, now under José Ignacio García, climbs to 6.2% (+1.6 points), translating into 2–3 seats and confirming its place as the fifth political force.
Absolute majority intact for Moreno
Despite a slight dip of 1.4 percentage points compared to 2022, Moreno’s PP would still control 55–57 seats, just above the 55 needed for an absolute majority in the 109-seat chamber.
For the PSOE, however, the survey makes grim reading. Under the leadership of Maria Jesus Montero, who replaced Juan Espadas in March, the party faces the prospect of its worst-ever result in Andalucia.
Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.
