The Partido Popular is within reach of an absolute majority in Andalucia, according to a new poll published just months before regional elections expected this spring.
The survey, conducted by Social Data for Publicaciones del Sur, places Juanma Moreno’s party in a dominant position – and potentially less dependent on Vox than in other regions such as Extremadura or Aragon.
The poll gives the PP 42.7% of the vote, just half a point below its 2022 result. That would translate into between 53 and 57 seats in the Andalucian parliament.
The absolute majority threshold stands at 55 seats. The PP currently holds 58.
If replicated on election day, the result would leave Moreno either narrowly securing an outright majority or just short, but still in a stronger position than many had anticipated.
PSOE slips, Vox rises
The PSOE would remain the second-largest force with 19.4% of the vote, but nearly four points down on the last election. That would reduce its representation from 30 seats to between 24 and 27.
Vox would be close behind and climb to 17.6%, up from 13.46% in 2022, securing between 20 and 23 seats.
The poll paints a picture of a centre-right bloc clearly ahead of a fragmented and weakened left.
Battle on the left
To the left of the PSOE, competition intensifies between Adelante Andalucia and Por Andalucia. The former, led by Jose Ignacio Garcia, is projected at 7.6% (up more than three points), with between 2 and 5 seats. The latter is set to fall to 5.8%, with between 2 and 4 seats.
Neither formation appears to be capitalising significantly on PSOE losses, highlighting continued fragmentation across the left-wing vote.
Moreno dominates leadership ratings
Juanma Moreno emerges as the best-rated political leader with a score of 5.79 out of 10. He is the only major figure comfortably above the pass mark.
He is followed by:
- Antonio Maillo (4.58)
- Jose Ignacio García (4.56)
- Maria Jesus Montero (3.63)
- Manuel Gavira (3.52)
When asked who they would prefer as president of the Junta, 50% of respondents chose Moreno, placing him almost 35 points ahead of Montero (15.6%).
The poll underlines how Moreno’s personal brand is central to the PP’s strength in Andalucia.
Voter loyalty and turnout
The PP retains over 81% of its 2022 voters, compared with just 61.7% for the PSOE, reflecting significant erosion in the Socialist base.
Both PP and Vox appear to be attracting new or previously abstaining voters.
Among those who did not vote in 2022, 20% now say they would back the PP, while 13.6% would choose Vox. Among first-time voters, both parties attract 26%.
High turnout is expected, with elections likely this spring.
Read more Andalucia news at the Spanish Eye.
